Foreign demand for Thai condos to stay weak in 2025 amid crackdown and global slowdown
A sharper crackdown on nominee ownership, intensified by the global economic slowdown, is anticipated to curb foreign buying power and temper overseas demand for Thailand’s condominiums in 2025, according to officials from the Government Housing Bank and the Real Estate Information Center (REIC).
Policy Context, Economic Headwinds, and Market Trajectory
The Thai property sector is navigating a dual challenge: robust regulatory tightening on foreign ownership pathways and a broader global economic downturn that weakens purchasing power among international buyers. These factors collectively are expected to temper overseas demand for Bangkok and provincial condo projects in the year ahead. The tightening of nominee ownership rules, which has intensified since the latter part of last year, forms a central pillar of the regulatory environment shaping foreign buyer behavior. In this climate, the REIC reports a nuanced pattern of condo transfers to foreigners, marked by declines in year-over-year comparisons across four of the last six quarters.
This evolving dynamic comes after a post-pandemic slowdown that began in the fourth quarter of 2023, when the market recorded a slight 0.5% year-over-year dip relative to the same period in 2022. The rebound in the first quarter of 2024 was modest but positive, with a 4.3% increase, followed by a more pronounced 6.8% drop in the second quarter of 2024. Growth resumed in the third quarter of 2024, leading to an 11.6% rise, yet this was countered by back-to-back declines in the fourth quarter of 2024 (-5%) and the first quarter of 2025 (-0.5%). These quarterly oscillations illustrate the volatility of foreign demand amid policy shifts and macroeconomic pressures, even as the broader economy shows some resilience in certain sectors.
Looking back at full-year indicators, the total number of condo units transferred to foreign nationals nationwide reached 14,573 in 2024, which represented a slight year-over-year uptick of 0.9% from 2023. However, the aggregate value of those transfers declined by 6.8%, totaling 68.1 billion baht. This juxtaposition—more units yet lower overall value—suggests a shift in the composition of buyers or in preference for different property segments, consistent with a market recalibrating under tighter ownership rules and softer demand conditions.
Marching into the first quarter of 2025, REIC data show a total of 3,919 condo units transferred to foreign buyers, with a combined value of 16.4 billion baht. This reflects a 0.5% decrease in unit count and a 9% decrease in value compared with the same period a year earlier. Despite these reductions in volume and value, foreign participation in the market actually rose when viewed through the lens of ownership share. The unit-based portion of foreign ownership climbed to 18% in Q1 2025, up from 16.7% in Q1 2024 and 10.7% in Q4 2024.
On the value side, the share of foreign ownership increased to 29.3% in Q1 2025 from 28.6% in Q1 2024 and 19.9% in Q4 2024. These shifts indicate that, while fewer units were transferred to foreign buyers in early 2025, the relative weight of foreign ownership in transaction value expanded, potentially signaling a preference among remaining foreign buyers for higher-value properties or for larger units within the condo segment.
The regulatory and economic environment underpins a broader narrative: foreign activity is becoming more selective and concentrated in higher-value segments, even as totals fluctuate. Market participants are keenly watching policy signals and macroeconomic indicators to gauge whether demand will stabilize or continue to ebb as 2025 progresses. The interplay between policy tightening and macro headwinds remains a critical driver of the tempo and composition of foreign transactions in Thailand’s condo market.
Foreign Transfers: Volume, Value, and Ownership Shares
The 2024 calendar year saw a nuanced picture for foreign-owned condo transfers. A total of 14,573 units were transferred to foreign nationals, representing a modest growth of 0.9% from the previous year. Yet the total transaction value declined, dipping by 6.8% to reach 68.1 billion baht. This combination of higher unit counts but lower value points to a shift in buyer preferences or pricing dynamics that may reflect a tilt toward more affordable segments or regions, even as the overall appetite among foreign buyers remains constrained by regulatory measures and currency considerations.
Entering the first quarter of 2025, the REIC reported 3,919 condo transfers to foreign purchasers, with a cumulative value of 16.4 billion baht. In year-on-year terms, this equates to a 0.5% contraction in the number of units and a 9% contraction in value. Despite the softness in transactions, the share of foreign ownership within the market expanded, underscoring a pivotal distinction between transaction volume and ownership stakes.
Ownership shares reveal a clear trend: foreign buyers’ footprint in the condo market grew in both unit count and transaction value, even as the absolute number of transfers softened. By unit count, foreign ownership rose to 18% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 16.7% in Q1 2024 and 10.7% in Q4 2024. This expansion suggests that the foreign buyers who remain active are acquiring a larger slice of available condo stock, potentially focusing on larger or higher-end units that command greater values.
In terms of value, the foreign share increased to 29.3% in Q1 2025 from 28.6% in Q1 2024 and 19.9% in Q4 2024. This indicates a disproportionate concentration of foreign buying power in higher-value transactions, reinforcing the perception that foreign buyers who continue to participate in the market are targeting more premium segments. The combination of rising value share with a modest dip in unit count highlights the complexity of foreign demand under current regulatory constraints and economic headwinds.
The data also underscore how ownership concentration can diverge from transactional throughput. Even as the number of units transferred to foreigners declines modestly on a quarterly basis, the increasing value share hints at stronger competition for high-end properties among foreign buyers within the regulated market structure. Market observers may interpret this as a sign of resilience among affluent overseas purchasers, even as overall activity softens.
Nationality Mix, Rankings, and Changing Dynamics in 2025 Q1
The nationality breakdown of foreign condo transfers reveals a stable core among the top buyers, with China maintaining the lead and a consistent trio of Myanmar and Russia following. In the first quarter of 2025, China accounted for 38% of foreign transfers by nationality, Myanmar for 11%, and Russia for 7%. These proportions remained aligned with the fourth-quarter 2024 figures, which reported China at 33%, Myanmar at 9%, and Russia at 7%. The persistence of these three nationalities at the top underscores a continued interest from Chinese buyers, supported by growth in Myanmar and steady Russian participation, even as policy changes and currency movements influence buying patterns.
Beyond the leading trio, the composition of the next tier—the fourth through eighth places—exhibited notable shifts. In Q1 2025, Taiwan moved into fourth place, followed by France, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany. This arrangement marks a shift from the prior period, where the fourth through eighth slots were occupied by the United States (fourth), Germany (fifth), Taiwan (sixth), France (seventh), and the United Kingdom (eighth). The reordering highlights evolving interest among various foreign buyer cohorts and may reflect changing affordability, investment strategies, and responses to regulatory changes across different origin markets.
Singapore held the ninth position in the first quarter of 2025, with Australia ranking just behind it. This ordering contrasts with the fourth quarter of 2024, when Australia stood ahead of Singapore in the rankings. The shifting placements among these nationalities illustrate how the foreign buyer landscape remains dynamic, with different markets adjusting to Thai regulatory developments and macroeconomic conditions.
The composition dynamics extend beyond rankings to the overall presence of foreign buyers in the Thai condo market. While the top nations continue to provide the majority of foreign transfers, the relative importance of other origins has fluctuated. The first quarter 2025 data point to a broader mix of buyers with a notable increase in representation by Taiwan and France, coupled with steady participation from the US, the UK, and Germany. Collectively, this signals that the foreign demand base in Thailand is diversifying, even as dominant sources of demand remain concentrated in a handful of markets.
For market participants, these nationality shifts carry implications for pricing strategies, product targeting, and cross-border marketing. Developers and sellers may adjust unit designs, locations, and price points to align with the preferences of the prevailing foreign buyer groups. At the same time, policymakers and industry associations monitor these trends to gauge how regulatory changes interact with international interest, currency movements, and economic conditions in source countries.
Market Signals: Price, Unit Size, and Implications for Buyers
The first quarter of 2025 also reveals indicative market signals in pricing and unit characteristics for condo transfers to foreign buyers. The average price per unit transferred to foreign purchasers stood at 4.2 million baht, with an average unit size of 41.9 square meters. These metrics suggest that foreign buyers in early 2025 were targeting mid-range to higher-value units with a reasonably compact footprint, aligning with preferences for modern, efficiently designed living spaces in urban centers or sought-after provincial locales.
From a pricing perspective, the 4.2 million baht average implies resilience in certain market segments, perhaps skewed toward higher-end developments where foreign buyers maintain a stronger presence. The relatively compact average size—41.9 square meters—also hints at a continuing demand for practical, space-efficient layouts that appeal to international investors or expatriates seeking convenient urban living.
The broader context includes the regulatory environment that continues to influence transaction choices. The tightened nominee ownership framework can affect decisions about where to place capital, which developers to engage with, and which regions or condo configurations are perceived as offering the best mix of legal clarity, security of investment, and long-term value appreciation. While the data indicate that foreign ownership share is rising in both unit count and value, the overall transaction volumes remain sensitive to policy signals and macroeconomic conditions that shape currency dynamics and financing conditions.
Developers, brokers, and financial institutions serving foreign buyers may respond by enhancing compliance programs, providing clearer ownership pathways, and offering product differentiation that emphasizes regulatory certainty, asset safety, and value growth potential. Buyers themselves might pursue due diligence on title structures, project track records, and exit strategies, given the evolving regulatory climate and the possibility of further policy refinements. In this environment, market players who align product offerings with foreign buyers’ expectations—particularly those from China, Myanmar, Russia, and the broader set of top-origin markets—are likely to maintain a competitive edge.
The combined effect of regulatory tightening, economic headwinds, and evolving nationality dynamics will continue to shape Thailand’s condo market into 2025 and beyond. Stakeholders should monitor quarterly transfers, price movements, and ownership shares as early indicators of shifts in demand and potential opportunities or risks in different market segments. The REIC data provide a granular view of how foreign buyers interact with the market, offering insights into which cities, developments, and property configurations are most likely to attract sustained foreign participation in a changing regulatory and economic landscape.
Conclusion
Thailand’s condo market is navigating a complex mix of policy changes, macroeconomic pressures, and shifting foreign buyer dynamics. The intensified crackdown on nominee ownership, coupled with a softer global economy, is expected to dampen overseas demand in 2025, even as the share of foreign ownership in unit counts and transaction value continues to rise. The year 2024 showed a modest increase in foreign transfers in volume but a decline in total value, while the first quarter of 2025 posted lower transaction counts and values yet a higher ownership share among foreigners. The top origin markets remained led by China, with Myanmar and Russia following, and the ranking among other nationalities showing notable shifts, including Taiwan’s rise to fourth place and a churn in the fourth-to-eighth positions compared with a year earlier.
Price and size metrics for foreign transactions in Q1 2025 indicate a relatively stable market for higher-value, compact units, suggesting that foreign buyers who remain engaged in the Thai condo market favor premium properties with efficient layouts. As policy direction and global economic conditions evolve, developers and buyers alike will need to adapt strategies to navigate regulatory requirements, currency movements, and pricing dynamics, while maintaining a focus on long-term value and investment security. The REIC’s ongoing monitoring of quarterly transfers and ownership shares will remain a critical tool for assessing how foreign demand responds to the evolving regulatory and macroeconomic environment in Thailand’s condo market.