Loading stock data...
Media e78dcd61 fabc 4b83 bc1c 2c39b1b508f1 133807079769261730
Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin’s Wild Odds See an 85% Chance of BTC Price Above $100K by New Year

Horizonstocks

As the year draws to a close, prediction markets are signaling that Bitcoin (BTC) may still have some significant upside left in it. According to data from Kalshi, a betting platform, there’s an 85% chance of BTC/USD reaching $100,000 or higher by December 31st.

The Odds are Stacked in Favor of Higher Prices

As we approach the end of the year, Bitcoin is already up nearly 40% in November and 55% in Q4 overall. While some may argue that a retrace to previous levels is due, the market has yet to show any signs of slowing down.

Kalshi’s data suggests that there’s even a 9% chance that the BTC/USD pair will crack $150,000 by year-end, and an outside bet of reaching $250,000 or higher. The median forecast on Kalshi sees a $125,000 price tag becoming a reality for Bitcoin in the new year.

Bitcoin ETFs: Absorbing Sell-Side Pressure

Institutional investors are pouring money into US Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen their most successful week’s inflows since launch. Total assets under management now stand at over $100 billion.

Onchain analytics firm Glassnode notes that the ETFs have played a key role in absorbing over 90% of sell-side pressure from long-term holders distributing coins held for years. However, as unrealized profits reach more extreme levels, we can expect more LTH spending, which in the immediate term has outpaced ETF inflows.

The Road to $100,000: A Matter of When, Not If

While Bitcoin hasn’t yet cracked the $100,000 mark, consensus is that it’s only a matter of time. The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, responded on X, calling Kalshi’s numbers "wild" and noting that Bitcoin’s market cap may end up at $2.5 trillion by January 1st.

The Psychological Barrier

$100,000 remains the most significant psychological barrier for Bitcoin prices. Some argue that a retrace to previous levels is due, but the market has yet to provide any signs of slowing down.

A Breakout Rally?

It seems that prediction markets are beginning to price-in a potential breakout rally above $100,000. Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter responded on X, calling the numbers "wild" and noting that Bitcoin’s market cap may end up at $2.5 trillion by January 1st.

Key Takeaways

  • Prediction markets suggest an 85% chance of BTC/USD reaching $100,000 or higher by December 31st.
  • There’s even a 9% chance that the pair will crack $150,000 in that time, along with an outside bet of $250,000 or higher.
  • US Bitcoin ETFs have seen their most successful week’s inflows since launch, with total assets under management now standing at over $100 billion.
  • Institutional investors are pouring money into these ETFs, which have played a key role in absorbing sell-side pressure from long-term holders.

What This Means for You

As we approach the end of the year, it’s essential to stay informed about market trends and predictions. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

By staying ahead of the curve, you can refine your trading strategies and spot potential investment opportunities. Stay tuned for more articles like this and subscribe to our Markets Outlook newsletter for critical insights to help you navigate the markets.

Disclaimer

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Stay ahead of the curve with our Markets Outlook newsletter, delivering critical insights to help you spot investment opportunities, mitigate risks, and refine your trading strategies. Delivered every Monday.

By subscribing, you agree to our Terms of Services and Privacy Policy.