Bitcoin Nears $95K as On-Chain Metrics Signal a Ripe Buying Window; Short-Term Losses Hint Accumulation Ahead

Bitcoin price dynamics remained nuanced after an early rally cooled by a mix of macro data and profit-taking. On-chain indicators, however, show nuanced buying opportunities at current levels for investors considering an entry into BTC markets. In particular, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has edged higher, signaling complex trading dynamics among holders with shorter time frames, while other well-followed cycle metrics imply that the market has not yet reached its peak. The combination of these signals suggests that further price action could unfold with a potential opportunity for patient buyers, even as yields, service-sector pricing, and the looming non-farm payrolls report shape near-term risk appetite.

On-chain Signals in Focus

Bitcoin’s on-chain analytics have drawn increased attention as traders weigh whether the recent pullback is a temporary correction within a longer bullish cycle or a sign of more meaningful weakness ahead. Among the most closely watched indicators is the SOPR, which monitors the profitability of coins that are spent by holders after being moved from their previous state. The latest observations show that SOPR has climbed to 0.987 as of Friday, a reading that carries specific implications about market behavior.

SOPR measures the profit or loss of spent outputs by comparing the price when the coins last moved with the price when they are spent again. A value below 1 indicates that, on aggregate, the spent outputs were moved at a loss, while a value above 1 would suggest profit taking. A short-term variant of SOPR, focused on coins moved within roughly 155 days or less, offers a timelier window into market sentiment. In the current context, a SOPR near but just below 1 suggests that a portion of recent buyers have faced paper losses, yet it does not automatically translate into selling pressure that would derail an ongoing bull phase. In fact, this configuration has historically preceded periods of price recovery, hinting at a potential buying opportunity for those willing to accumulate at or near this level.

In addition to SOPR, other high-profile cycle indicators—such as Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and the Puell Multiple—have provided a complementary read on whether the market is approaching a local top or a bottom. The combined message from these tools, together with a measure often referred to as the short-term investor ratio, remains cautiously constructive. A contributing analyst from CryptoQuant has noted that the market’s current configuration does not indicate an immediate peak, even as prices retreat in the short term. The analyst’s perspective reinforces the notion that the current correction could be a pause within a longer bullish arc rather than a definitive end to the upcycle.

As short-term holders experience mounting drawdowns, the narrative often shifts toward accumulation opportunities for informed buyers. The analyst emphasized that further declines from prevailing levels could tempt smart investors to stock up on coins sold at discounts by those who bought more recently and sold quickly at losses. The logic is that, in such scenarios, the cheapest coins—those moved at lower realized prices by short-term participants—may become the target of strategic accumulation by longer-horizon participants who view the price weakness as a chance to increase exposure at favorable costs. This line of reasoning underscores a persistent theme in crypto markets: price dips can translate into entry points for disciplined buyers, particularly when on-chain signals suggest that shorter-term pain may precede a broader recovery.

To ground the discussion in metric definitions, SOPR assesses the profitability of spent bitcoin outputs by comparing the value at the time of their last movement to the value at the time they are spent again. The short-term version of SOPR, focusing on coins moved within a limited timeframe, helps gauge market sentiment and potential bottoms. Values below 1 can hint at capitulation or a possible market bottom, potentially signaling a buying window for keen entrants. Meanwhile, MVRV contrasts Bitcoin’s total market capitalization (market value) with the realized cap, which assigns value to each coin at the price it last moved. This ratio functions as a gauge of whether BTC is overbought or oversold and aids in forecasting potential tops and bottoms. Together, these tools provide a framework for interpreting the near-term dynamics around the current price levels.

In the backdrop, BTC traded close to $95,000 during European morning trading after slipping to around $90,000 in the U.S. session on Thursday, reflecting a decline of roughly 10% from a weekly peak that had briefly surpassed $120,000. The price action sits within a broader context of macro volatility and shifting risk appetite, where on-chain signals serve as a counterweight to the price narrative, offering a lens into who is buying, who is selling, and where price levels might stabilize.

In-Depth Metric Analysis: SOPR, MVRV, and Puell

SOPR’s interpretation rests on the premise that the profitability of coins once spent can illuminate whether holders are trimming positions or carrying bag risk. The latest reading of approximately 0.987 sits just shy of breakeven, implying that a broad subset of recent sellers may have realized losses. Yet a value near 1 does not automatically translate into a top or a bottom; it reflects a balance of profits and losses across the on-chain moving parts. The nuanced takeaway is that short-term sellers’ losses do not automatically translate into a capitulation event that marks a genuine market bottom; however, they can coincide with price consolidation or a measured consolidation before renewed upside.

MVRV adds another layer to the interpretive framework by comparing current market value to the realized value. When the market value to realized value ratio is elevated, it can signal overextension; when it approaches lower levels, it may indicate the market is approaching a cycle trough. In practical terms, MVRV helps investors gauge whether the market’s price is justified by where the coins last moved, thereby offering a valuation-based perspective on potential tops and bottoms. The current readings on MVRV indicate that the market is not yet signaling a pronounced top based on this metric, complementing the SOPR-based view and supporting the possibility that the market could sustain upside moves after a correction.

The Puell Multiple draws on miner revenue as a proxy for network activity and price discipline. By comparing the USD value of newly minted BTC to the realized cap, the Puell Multiple provides insight into whether miner economics are aligned with price levels. When the Puell Multiple reclines toward historically lower bands, it can reflect periods of stress or a favorable entry point for miners to consider strategic accumulation or expansion, while elevated Puell readings might indicate periods of stronger network activity and demand. In the present context, the Puell Multiple’s trajectory contributes to a broader sense that the market dynamics are not signaling an immediate top, reinforcing the interpretation that the current correction could be a temporary pullback within an ongoing upcycle.

Together, these on-chain indicators contribute to a narrative in which near-term weakness does not erase longer-term momentum. The short-term signal of SOPR near 0.987 combined with supportive readings from MVRV and Puell suggests that the market could be poised for a renewed phase of price appreciation as buyers who see value at current levels step in. This confluence aligns with the idea that corrections are not only natural but sometimes necessary in establishing a firmer base for subsequent gains, especially when accompanied by disciplined accumulation.

Price Action and Macro-Driven Volatility

Bitcoin’s price action has reflected a tug-of-war between bullish fundamentals and macro headwinds. BTC hovered near $95,000 in European trading on Friday after a more pronounced decline during U.S. hours, dipping to around $90,000 on Thursday and retreating from a weekly high that briefly exceeded $120,000. This swing captures the market’s sensitivity to shifting risk sentiment and the influence of macro data on crypto dynamics.

The latest macro data contributed to a shift in risk appetite by lifting U.S. treasury yields, a move that typically pressures risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. A hotter-than-expected tilt in macro releases can trigger a repricing of growth assets as investors anticipate higher discount rates and a more restrictive monetary stance. In this instance, the combination of rising yields and a flight from risk assets cast a shadow over near-term BTC performance, even as longer-term traders kept an eye on on-chain signals that could foreshadow a rebound.

One of the pivotal macro drivers in the period under review was an ISM report on U.S. services activity, which came in stronger than expected. The prices-paid component of the ISM services index reached its highest level since early 2023, signaling ongoing inflationary pressures and a resilient service sector. A stronger services PMI tends to feed expectations of continued economic strength, which, in turn, can influence expectations for interest-rate policy and the broader risk environment.

Market participants also watched for the upcoming release of U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP). The NFP print is often a barometer of the labor market’s health and can sway expectations about Federal Reserve policy paths. In the current setup, stronger-than-expected NFP readings could reinforce expectations of higher interest rates or prolonged rate-tightening cycles, which typically weigh on risk assets including BTC. Traders cited the NFP as a critical event risk that could meaningfully shape positioning and liquidity across crypto markets in the near term.

Against this backdrop of macro signals, traders have attempted to parse the implications for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Some analysts argue that a robust macro environment could support a sustained risk-on stance, allowing Bitcoin to reclaim some of its earlier gains as investors reassess risk premiums. Others caution that rising yields and persistent inflation pressures could limit upside by pushing investors toward traditional assets or by dampening appetite for speculative growth plays. The reality, as often observed in crypto markets, is that near-term movements are likely to hinge on a combination of macro developments and on-chain signals that collectively inform expectations for the next few trading sessions.

Investor Behavior and Cycle Dynamics

A central thread in the current narrative is the behavior of short-term investors and how their actions interact with the longer-term cycle. As price corrections unfold, those who entered the market during earlier stages of the rally may experience more pronounced drawdowns, which can intensify selling pressure or prompt risk-off behavior. However, a rising SOPR above a critical threshold or stabilization in MVRV and Puell readings can indicate a shift in sentiment from fear-driven selling to potential accumulation.

Analysts highlight that when short-term investors face losses, disciplined buyers may view the situation as an opportunity. The logic is that deepening losses among newer holders can widen the cost basis dispersion, potentially creating a more favorable environment for patient, value-oriented buyers who believe the longer-term thesis remains intact. This dynamic is not a guarantee of a quick rebound, but it frames a scenario in which strategic entrants could begin to accumulate at prices that historically have provided favorable entry points for later-stage rally phases.

Market sentiment, while difficult to quantify precisely, has often shown a cyclical pattern where periods of pain among short-term participants coincide with improved upside risk/reward propositions for longer-term holders and new entrants. The interplay between on-chain metrics and price behavior helps explain why some traders view pullbacks as part of a natural cycle rather than as a definitive warning sign. In this framework, the current correction could serve to flush out weaker hands while attracting investors who rely on robust data signals and disciplined risk management.

From a behavioral standpoint, the coordination between on-chain signals and macro conditions can be seen as a multi-layered tapestry. Short-term pain can coexist with long-term optimism if investors interpret the readings from SOPR, MVRV, and Puell as indicating resilience rather than exhaustion of demand. This interpretation supports the notion that investors who adopt patient strategies could benefit from a more favorable cost basis and a more robust entry point once buyers re-enter the market at technically supportive levels.

Tactical Implications for Traders and Holders

For traders and long-term holders, the current landscape offers a variety of strategic considerations anchored in on-chain data and macro context. The near-term reading of SOPR around 0.987 suggests that some coins are being spent at a slight loss, which could hint at potential consolidation before any renewed move higher. For those who emphasize on-chain analytics, this combination of data points might justify a tempered approach, with a willingness to accumulate in tranches as price interacts with historically meaningful support zones.

From a risk-management perspective, a measured plan could involve setting incremental buy levels near or just above key support thresholds, while maintaining clear stop-loss parameters to guard against sharper drawdowns. Because macro catalysts, such as the ISM services index and NFP data, can influence sentiment, a flexible strategy that adapts to incoming data releases may provide resilience in the face of volatility. In this context, traders might favor a blend of price-based entries and on-chain confirmations, using SOPR and MVRV signals to corroborate decisions about when to increase or trim exposure.

In terms of time horizons, the implication for long-term holders remains that on-chain indicators do not currently signal an imminent top; rather, they paint a scenario in which the market could stabilize and prepare for a renewed ascent if macro conditions align with constructive on-chain dynamics. The risk-reward calculus for new entrants leans toward waiting for additional price relief accompanied by supportive on-chain evidence, but for some, the present levels already offer a reasonable starting point for a layered accumulation strategy that balances risk with potential upside.

To further support decision-making, investors should monitor evolving on-chain signals alongside macro developments. This includes watching for any shifts in SOPR toward sustained above-1 readings, a sustained or expanding MVRV ratio, and a Puell signal that indicates miners are generally finding a balance between production costs and price levels. While no single indicator can forecast with certainty, the convergence of multiple signals can strengthen confidence in the case for accumulation, particularly when paired with a favorable macro backdrop.

Market Outlook, Scenarios, and Risk Considerations

Looking ahead, the interplay between on-chain indicators and macro factors will likely shape Bitcoin’s trajectory over the coming weeks and months. If current readings persist, and macro data remains supportive or becomes more favorable, Bitcoin could resume its ascent as short-term sellers digest losses and new buyers step in at levels deemed attractive by on-chain models. Conversely, if macro momentum erodes or liquidity dries up, the market could test stronger support levels and prolong the consolidation phase.

Key risk factors to watch include the persistence of higher treasury yields, which could continue to pressure risk assets, and any shifts in monetary policy expectations that alter the risk appetite of market participants. Additionally, external shocks or fresh regulatory developments could alter the calculus for bitcoin and digital assets more broadly, potentially amplifying price swings or changing the pace of adoption among institutions and retail traders alike.

From a strategic perspective, the current environment underscores the value of a patient, data-driven approach. For investors who maintain a disciplined framework, the combination of on-chain signals and macro context can provide a structured basis for evaluating entry points, setting risk controls, and gradually building exposure in a measured, sustainable way. The absence of a definitive top signal in the key metrics suggests that a longer-term bullish trajectory remains within the realm of possibility, provided that macro forces align with ongoing on-chain resilience.

Final Thoughts on the Near-Term Path

As BTC navigates the near term, the alignment of on-chain metrics with macro signals offers a nuanced view of the potential path forward. SOPR’s near-neutral reading, combined with supportive MVRV and Puell implications, points to a scenario in which a meaningful price rebound could unfold if selling pressure eases and demand returns. The price action observed in the latest sessions—pullback after a rally—fits within a pattern often observed in cyclical markets, where corrections serve to recalibrate supply-demand dynamics and set the stage for subsequent legups.

Investors and traders should maintain an eye on the evolving data, ready to adapt strategies as new information becomes available. The upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls release, together with continued monitoring of ISM services, inflation indicators, and liquidity conditions, will be crucial in shaping risk appetite and positioning decisions. Given the current confluence of on-chain signals suggesting a potential buying opportunity and macro data that can influence risk tolerance, a cautious yet opportunistic stance may be warranted for those seeking exposure to Bitcoin at present levels.

Conclusion

In summary, the latest on-chain readings and macro developments present a complex but potentially favorable framework for BTC entry at current price levels. SOPR’s near-breakeven reading, alongside supportive readings from MVRV and Puell, points to a landscape where short-term holders could face losses while longer-term participants anticipate a renewed phase of strength. Price action reflects a corrective move within a broader upcycle, influenced by rising treasury yields and robust service-sector data. The upcoming NFP data and ongoing macro dynamics will continue to influence risk appetite, with the potential to shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the near term.

For traders and investors, the message is to balance on-chain insights with macro awareness, employ disciplined risk controls, and consider gradual accumulation strategies if price regimes align with favorable signals. While no outcome is guaranteed, the confluence of indicators suggests that a thoughtfully executed approach to accumulation at current levels could be meaningful for those seeking exposure to Bitcoin as part of a longer-term investment thesis.