What’s Holding Back the Price of Bitcoin Right Now?
Bitcoin’s Price Consolidation: Why the $100,000 Mark Remains Elusive
Introduction
The Bitcoin (BTC) price has been consolidating within a roughly $8,200 range over the last seven days, as the elusive $100,000 mark remains out of reach. This consolidation pattern is primarily due to a combination of factors, including the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States and a decrease in flows into BTC investment products.
Demand for Bitcoin Investment Products Stalls
Bitcoin’s price has remained stagnant over the last week primarily due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States and a decrease in flows into BTC investment products. According to data from CryptoQuant, outflows from Bitcoin investment products totaled $457 million over the week ending Nov. 29.
Investment Product Flows
| Date | Outflows (USD) |
| — | — |
| Week ending Nov. 22 | $343M |
| Week ending Nov. 29 | $457M |
The chart below displays the Net Realized Profit/Loss metric used to assess the hourly change in onchain capital flows for Bitcoin, measured in US dollars.
Net Realized Profit / Loss (USD)
At present, it can be seen that both profit and loss forces are largely equal, resulting in market equilibrium. This suggests that investors are taking a cautious approach and not making significant bets either way, contributing to the price consolidation.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Balances Remain Stable
Spot Bitcoin ETFs balances have also been relatively stable since Nov. 25, despite record inflows and outflows in November. The stability in these balances suggests that investors are not making significant changes to their positions, which is another contributing factor to the price consolidation.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Balances
| Date | Balance (USD) |
| — | — |
| Nov. 20 | $1.23B |
| Nov. 25 | $1.21B |
Net Realized Profit/Loss Metric
The hourly Net Realized profit peaked at $1.08 billion on Nov. 21 before dropping and plateauing around $33 million in the previous seven days.
Hourly Net Realized Profit
| Date | Hourly Net Realized Profit (USD) |
| — | — |
| Nov. 20 | $1.05B |
| Nov. 21 | $1.08B |
| Dec. 2 | $33M |
Bitcoin Stuck Between Two Trendlines
On Dec. 2, Bitcoin price fell below the support provided by the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) at $95,821.
BTC/USD Four-Hour Chart
However, this move saw BTC/USD find support at the 100 SMA, currently sitting at $95,051.
BTC/USD Four-Hour Chart
Bitcoin’s price has now risen above the 50 SMA, but it needs to surpass the resistance at $98,200 to break out of the current consolidation pattern. The BTC price is also pinned under a relatively stiff barrier, sitting within the $96,422 and $97,111 congestion area.
IOMAP Chart
This is where more than 733,760 addresses acquired approximately 597,620 BTC within this range.
Resistance and Support Levels
On the downside, the 100 SMA at $95,051 is within the $92,876 and $95,736 buyer congestion zone, which is now providing support for the bulls. Roughly 688,690 addresses previously bought approximately 348,720 BTC in this zone.
IOMAP Chart
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Conclusion
The price consolidation of Bitcoin is a complex phenomenon that cannot be explained by a single factor. The combination of factors such as the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, decrease in flows into BTC investment products, and market equilibrium are all contributing to the current price range.
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